Injuries and Trades impacting Pacers before All-Star Break
Diving into the Pacers recent moves: small sample size takeaways with Siakam; Hield asking out, McDermott partially filling a shooting void and injuries.
Since injuring his hamstring on January 8th against the Boston Celtics, the Pacers have slowly brought Tyrese Haliburton back into the fold on a minutes restriction. This has put a wrinkle into how the Pacers rotation looks and how the team has played. The inability to play past the 6-minute mark in the 3rd quarter for the first two games, to coming off the bench for the first time ever as a Pacer when suiting up against his former team, the Sacramento Kings, to slowly getting an increase in minutes played the last few games, the adjustments that the Pacers have had to make have been difficult for everyone involved.
Since acquiring Pascal Siakam, the Pacers injury report has been large. Siakam, Nesmith, Toppin, Hield and Sheppard are the only players to not miss time with an injury that have been in the rotation regularly.
Haliburton - 5 games (Hamstring)
Mathurin - 3 games (Big Toe, Stomach Illness)
McConnell - 2 games (Personal, Illness)
Turner - 2 games (Back & Sprained Ankle)
Smith - 2 games (Back)
Jackson - 2 games (Concussion)
Nembhard - 1 game (Thoracic Spine Sprain)
Nobody is more frustrated with things than Tyrese Haliburton, but that is to be expected. Haliburton is a competitor who wants to be out there for his team when the game is on the line, but he has to think about the long-term future of this team. The Pacers can only reach their ceiling with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton.
Speaking of the long-term future, the Pacers had to make a tough decision before the NBA Trade Deadline on Thursday, February 8th. The Pacers made two trades that put them a step back this season but shifts focus to the short and long-term future of the team.
First, they made a three-team deal with Philadelphia and San Antonio that landed them Doug McDermott, Furkan Korkmaz, a 2024 second round pick, a 2029 second round pick and cash considerations ($1.2M), where they sent out sharpshooter, Buddy Hield to the Philadelphia 76ers and cash ($320K) to the San Antonio Spurs.
The last move they made was with the Golden State Warriors. They acquired former Pacers guard, Cory Joseph, a Top-55 protected 2nd round pick and cash considerations ($5.8M) for the worst of the Pacers 3-second round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft (Cleveland, Milwaukee or New Orleans).
After the deals were made, the Pacers waived Cory Joseph and Furkan Korkmaz. They signed James Johnson to a new contract that would last for the remainder of the season, after his second 10-day contract had passed Wednesday night. Indiana now has one open roster spot to bring in a free agent, or they can elevate one of their G-League players if they so desire.
Overall, for 8 days of Pacers basketball in the month of February, there has been a ton that has happened. The Pacers have played in 5 games, where they are 2-3, and they made 2 trades and a signing. In addition to that, they have dealt with multiple injuries, not just to Tyrese, and are still trying to get more reps with Siakam and his teammates before the playoffs arrive.
With only 3 games remaining till the much-needed All-Star break, the Pacers have a chance to distance themselves from the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat, who are lurking behind them in the 7th and 8th seeds of the Eastern Conference with the hopes of passing Indiana who is sitting in 6th place with a 0.5 game lead.
While the sample size is still relatively small, I want to look at the lineup combinations with Pascal Siakam, dive into how Doug McDermott fits in with this team and what the overall loss of Buddy Hield means moving forward.
Pascal Siakam: Who is meshing with the new Power Forward?
When looking at 5-man lineups with Siakam, there hasn’t been one group that has logged over 100 minutes together. In fact, the most minutes together for a 5-man lineup with Siakam is the starting group the last 3 games: Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam and Turner. They have played a total of 57 minutes together and have a negative net rating of -2.4.
-10 against the Warriors
-5 against the Rockets
+13 against the Hornets
The kinks are still being worked out with that group, but it is important that Coach Rick Carlisle continues to let this group find its footing over the next few months, so that chemistry can be developed before the playoffs arrive.
So far since trading for Siakam, the Pacers have had 6 different starting lineups in 12 games of action:
Siakam, Turner, Haliburton, Hield & Nesmith (3x)
Siakam, Turner, Nembhard, Hield & Nesmith (3x)
Siakam, Turner, Nembhard, Haliburton & Nesmith (3x)
Siakam, Turner, McConnell, Hield & Nesmith (1x)
Siakam, Smith, Nembhard, Hield & Nesmith (1x)
Siakam, Nesmith, Jackson, Mathurin & McConnell (1x)
This is what happens when you have countless injuries, a player trying to work his way back into the fold and then a coaching staff trying to settle in a group of 5 that they feel gives the team the best chance to win.
Based on the numbers, the best 5 with Siakam in terms of overall net rating (+30.8) and offensive rating (+143.8), was the original 5 he started with when he first got traded here. Haliburton, Hield, Nesmith, Siakam and Turner. With Hield being moved, it makes sense why Indiana inserted Nembhard into the starting lineup against Charlotte on Sunday.
The likelihood of Hield being here was slim and the coaching staff and front office knew that. With how well that group of 5 was playing together, it would not make sense to shake it up, even though Hield had been struggling during that stretch.
Adjusting to a lineup that provides better defense and weakens the offense with less shooting and floor spacing will take time. However, I anticipate the Pacers will figure things out.
Let’s dive a little deeper into who is playing well and who hasn’t clicked yet analytically with Siakam. Here are the stats for how the following players have paired with Siakam:
Haliburton: 7 games, 141 minutes, 124.7 offensive rating, 117.8 defensive rating and a 6.9 net rating.
Nesmith: 12 games, 320 minutes, 124.0 offensive rating, 116.6 defensive rating and a 7.4 net rating.
Turner: 10 games, 235 minutes, 121.5 offensive rating, 119.0 defensive rating and a 2.4 net rating.
Mathurin: 9 games, 124 minutes, 117.0 offensive rating, 102.6 defensive rating and a 14.4 net rating.
Nembhard: 11 games, 244 minutes, 120.7 offensive rating, 115.9 defensive rating and a 4.9 net rating.
McConnell: 9 games, 77 minutes, 121.0 offensive rating, 108.4 defensive rating and a 12.6 net rating.
Toppin: 10 games, 65 minutes, 127.0 offensive rating, 112.0 defensive rating and a 15.0 net rating.
Smith: 10 games. 92 minutes, 121.6 offensive rating, 110.2 defensive rating and a 11.5 rating.
Sheppard: 10 games, 66 minutes, 123.6 offensive rating, 112.7 defensive rating and a 10.9 net rating.
Jackson: 2 games, 22 minutes, 88.0 offensive rating, 112.2 defensive rating and a -24.2 net rating.
Siakam has been mostly in the positive with whatever 2-man lineup he has been in with the Pacers, with Isaiah Jackson being the exception. It’s the smallest sample size of any of the 2-man combinations with only 22 minutes being played together, but I think it makes sense that the non-shooting center next to him isn’t the most ideal.
I find it interesting that the 2nd worst net rating of any Siakam 2-man lineup is with he and Myles Turner. They are still a positive, but only at 2.4. The sample size is significantly smaller with Jalen Smith, but the fact that those 2 are the best power forward-center combo of any group here piques my interest. I’d like to see these two playing more minutes together.
Overall, Pascal Siakam has the best net rating of any Pacer over the last 12 games. His individual net rating is a +6.8. Only 3 other Pacers have a positive plus-minus since Siakam’s debut, and that is: Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton.
Siakam also has the best offensive rating (123.4) of any player on the Pacers since he arrived and has the 7th best defense rating (116.6) which is the best of any of the starters.
Lastly, since I shared the best 5-man lineup and 2-man lineup, I figure I should share the best 3-man and 4-man lineups with Siakam (20 minutes played minimum and without Hield):
2-man: Obi Toppin, 15.0 net rating in 65 minutes.
3-man: Ben Sheppard and Bennedict Mathurin, 48.9 net rating in 26 minutes.
4-man: Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, 32.8 net rating in 34 minutes.
5-man: Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Myles Turner and Tyrese Haliburton, 3.4 net rating in 52 minutes.
A Shooter Swap: in comes Doug McDermott, out goes Buddy Hield…
The Pacers took a step back this season by replacing Buddy Hield for Doug McDermott, however, the Pacers hands may have been tied. According to Gregg Doyel of the Indy Star, the sharpshooting Hield requested the trade from the Pacers. After failing to reach a contract agreement, and with so many young players on the roster at the position he plays, the veteran saw the writing on the wall and wanted to land with a new team that could potentially offer him more playing time and a new contract in the summer.
So, with that tidbit of information, it does soften the blow. Indiana’s front office knew that they had to make a move, so they were able to acquire a pretty solid second round pick and also picked up extra cash to buy more picks after the separate deal with the Warriors.
I applaud the Pacers for making the most out of a tough situation, but I also respect Hield and his agent for handling the trade request behind closed doors instead of coming out to the public and tying the Pacers hands behind their backs. The return for Hield would have been worse had news broke that he was requesting a trade.
So, with Hield out and McDermott in, what can the Pacers expect from another sharpshooter?
This season, McDermott has been coming off the bench for a Spurs team that is destined for the NBA Draft Lottery. At 10-42, the Spurs are focused more on developing their young core, specifically Victor Wembanyama, as they look to restore the greatness of Spurs basketball with one of the most promising prospects of the last 20 years.
Statistically, McDermott’s minutes and points are the lowest they have been since his rookie season. He is only playing 15 minutes per game and is averaging just 6 points. He has been healthy for 46 of the 51 games he’s been on the roster and is shooting 43.9% from three.
Buddy Hield has made 137 threes and has taken 369. Doug McDermott has made 76 threes and has taken 173. Hield has played 1,376 minutes this season and McDermott has only played 700. So, Hield has nearly doubled McDermott in these categories, giving us a better idea of what to expect.
There will be a smaller role for McDermott on this team, but his floor spacing will still be significant. While his volume is quite lower, his percentages from deep will cause defenses to respect his outside shooting touch.
In the video above, you can see how the Spurs utilized McDermott in screens and handoffs to create space and punish the opposing big man for playing drop and creating a ton of space for McDermott to get open.
Back in the 2019-2020 season, McDermott was 9th in handoffs with the Pacers. He frequently used the screening of Sabonis to setup the dribble handoff, which usually led to open threes as the big guarding Sabonis would be in drop coverage.
Not only can McDermott hit you with the dribble handoff, but he will also make the right cuts when a defender is overplaying him. With Sabonis no longer on the team, I would love to see how Siakam and McDermott play off of each other. Siakam is a capable playmaker that already draws so much attention, I think the two could pair well together.
For the bench, McConnell knows how to set McDermott up since they spent time playing together, but Jalen Smith will need to learn his tendencies if Rick Carlisle wants to use McDermott in the dribble handoff spot.
Rick Carlisle did not utilize McDermott with the dribble handoff as much when the two were paired together for 26 games at the end of the 2017-2018 season. In fact, McDermott was used as a shooter coming off of off-ball-screens. He had 73 possessions where he came off screens and had an average of 1.16 points per possession when doing so.
Indiana doesn’t run many handoffs as a team. Haliburton is the most frequently used in dribble handoff situations, but he is 51st in the league in terms of number of possessions involved with a dribble handoff.
When it comes to off-ball-screens, Hield is 38th in the league in terms of number of possessions (with Indiana), but the newly acquired McDermott ranked 33rd. Since we already know that Hield has dominated the minutes played category compared to McDermott, it once again highlights how the Pacers offense doesn’t rely on set plays where shooters are constantly running off screens.
The Pacers run a lot of their offense through the pick and roll. Haliburton (8th) and McConnell (1st) rank in the Top 10 of FREQ%. Haliburton generates 1.11 points per possession out of the pick and roll and McConnell generates 1.04 points per possession. This will lead to more spot up threes, something the Pacers have taken a lot of this season:
Hield - 221 possessions, 1.01 PPP
Nesmith - 189 possessions, 1.22 PPP
Turner - 157 possessions, 0.94 PPP
Toppin - 150 possessions, 1.20 PPP
Mathurin - 139 possessions, 1.09 PPP
B. Brown - 106 possessions, 0.92 PPP
Haliburton - 94 possessions, 1.16 PPP
Smith - 65 possessions, 1.45 PPP
PPP = Points Per Possession
Doug McDermott with the Spurs this season had 92 possessions as a spot up shooter and had 1.17 PPP. The possessions are less in San Antonio because of his playing time, but the rate of 1.17 PPP would be the 3rd highest on the Pacers.
Final Thoughts
McDermott left Indiana for San Antonio in 2021, when the Pacers completed a sign-and-trade with the Spurs. The Pacers signed McDermott to a 3-year/$41.25M contract before dealing him. This is the final season of that deal, so McDermott is on an expiring contract that equates to $13.75M.
At 32 years old, it doesn’t appear that McDermott is in the long-term plans for the Pacers, but they could re-sign him in free agency at a much cheaper deal than what Hield was hoping for.
There is no doubt that Hield’s offensive force for the Pacers will be missed, but the overall loss of Hield should not make them drastically worse win-loss wise. McDermott will fill some of the void in terms of distance shooting, but not all of it. It is worth noting that in the 26 games that McDermott played under Carlisle he shot a career best 49.4% from three on 3 attempts per game. McDermott was also 26 years old at the time, so expecting the same production is unfair, but it does indicate that Carlisle is familiar with his game and can maximize what he does best.
What lies ahead for Mathurin and Nembhard is an opportunity to fill the void that McDermott can’t do on his own now that Hield and Brown have been traded. Not only were the two veterans traded off of the Pacers roster, but they were traded for players that play at the forward position (Siakam and McDermott). This gives them an opportunity to shoulder more of the responsibility that the veterans had.
Rick Carlisle has stressed that starting spots and playing time will be earned, not given. Right now, Nembhard has earned the starting 2 guard spot and Mathurin has earned the 6th man role. By moving both veterans, the front office has made it clear that they trust these second-year players and they are relying on them to win games for the franchise.